Future of Security of Supply for Electricity Distribution – Initial Research (Future SoS)

This project will review current standard and regulations for security of supply for electricity distribution. It will aim to make recommendations where changes may be needed in light of the decarbonisation evolution.

Problem(s)

Security of supply standards have been evolving since their original introduction and in most recent years have been updated to incorporate contribution from new generation technologies and to enable use of flexibility (demand side response). Future plans for decarbonisation of heat, transport and other processes, including industrial decarbonisation, has the potential to significantly increase both demand for and reliance upon electricity, thereby increasing the socioeconomic need for reliable electricity supplies. Existing standards and incentives may not fully meet this need.

The National Infrastructure Commission's report on electricity distribution recommended a full review of security of supply standards by the end of 2028. The government's recent response to the report accepted the recommendation but stated that "the review itself may need a more flexible timescale than completion by 2028".

Method(s)

A desktop research project which will focus on summarising how DNO security of supply obligations are compared to other energy networks’ security of supply obligations nationally, internationally, and cross-vector.

Why and when change may be needed will be considered and documented.

Options for future changes to security of supply standards and regulation will be proposed with a summary of the options, pros and cons of each option including interactions between different options and recommendations for next steps to select and implement change.

• Scope

  To address the problem stated above, NGED has partnered with University of Bath (UoB) and will undertake a research project to look into the security of supply standards and regulations in five work packages, as described below:

  WP0: Project Management

  NGED will hold project management duties which will be performed in accordance with NGED Innovation governance and NIA governance.

  WP1: Review of the current state of security of supply obligation and incentives for DNOs

  UoB will deliver WP1, drawing on historical background, transmission, gas distribution and international examples. UoB will review the current state of security of supply obligations and incentives for electricity distribution in Great Britain.

  Full detail about the research coverage is provided below:

  • A summary of the historical background to security of supply – how we arrived at the current arrangements – including a suggested timeline of key points from the first issue of P2 onwards.
  • A comparison with the security of supply situation in electricity transmission (i.e., SQSS), highlighting any inherent differences in distribution.
  • A comparison with the security of supply situation in gas distribution (the current dominant energy source for heating) and liquid fuel distribution (the current dominant energy source for transport), highlighting any inherent differences in electricity.
  • A comparison with relevant international security of supply examples, highlighting any inherent differences in Great Britain.
  • A commentary on the net effect of current security of supply obligations and incentives, including:

  1. Obligations set in Engineering Recommendation P2
  2. Security of supply obligations set by the Electricity Safety, Quality & Continuity Regulations, and the Electricity at Work Regulations
  3. The effect of Interruption Incentive Scheme on security of supply
  4. The effects of guaranteed standards set by the Electricity (Standards of Performance) Regulations on security of supply
  5. The effects of provisions for worst-served customers on security of supply UoB will also deliver a commentary on the relationship between security of supply, resilience, and other related concepts. For this project, the direct impact of climate change on electricity network equipment will be considered part of resilience and therefore out of scope.

  WP2: Analysis of trigger points for changes in security of supply

  UoB will deliver WP2, analysing the trigger points for changes in security of supply. UoB will address the trigger points for changes needed in security of supply (i.e. why and when change is needed). This analysis will focus on:

  • How the decarbonisation of heat, transport and other processes is increasing both:

  1.  Reliance upon electricity, so increasing the socioeconomic need for reliable electricity supplies.
  2. Consumption of electricity, both normally and in cold-load pickup. Engineering Recommendation P2 currently assigned classes of supply to groups of customers (i.e. how much security that group will receive) based upon the combined peak demand of that group. This calculation could be invalidated or at least require recalibration.

  • How the transition from passive to active electricity distribution networks is:

  1. Creating a requirement for operating standards alongside planning standards.
  2. Influencing customer behaviour, which in turn affects peak demand and assigned levels of security. Introducing new risks to security of supply alongside outages of circuits and busbar:
  3. Outages of power electronics, SCADA systems and telecommunications
  4. The impact of distribution-connected demand and generation responding to system-level markets and signals. This raises questions about what markets and behaviours capacity or network access should be reserved for.

  • A literature review of prior research and calls for change, including but not limited to:

  1. The National Infrastructure Commission’s report on Electricity Distribution
  2. The government response to that report
  3. The ENA’s ongoing research into the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) d. BEIS (now DESNZ) Electrical Engineering Standards Review, 2020
  4. IEEE standards for smart grids

  WP3: Recommendation and next steps for selection and implementation of future changes to standards and regulation

  UoB will deliver WP3, setting out recommendations and next steps for how the sector can move forward in relation to security of supply.

  The University of Bath will:

  • Set out options for future changes to standards and regulation. These will include:

  1. Deterministic vs probabilistic vs output-based
  2. Planning vs operating

  • Each option will be presented as:

  1.  Summary
  2. Pros and cons
  3. Interactions with other options where they are not mutually exclusive
  4. Route to commercialisation

  • Recommended next steps to select and implement changes. This discovery phase project will not recommend for or against particular options, but will highlight particularly promising options as worthy of further investigation.

  1.  

  WP4: Closedown report and dissemination

  Closedown report and dissemination activities will be delivered in accordance with NGED Innovation governance and NIA governance. WP4 will be led by NGED. UoB will contribute into closedown report writing and dissemination activities as required.

• Objectives
  • Undertake a comprehensive review of the current state of electricity distribution security of supply standard and regulations, comparing with relevant examples from other utility networks nationally and internationally.
  • Evaluate increasing socio-economic reliance on electricity.
  • Assess the current state of electricity distribution security of supply standards and make well justified recommendation as to whether any changes are needed (options for change proposed with rationale provided); or no changes are required.
• Success Criteria
  • Finalised comprehensive review of the current state of security of supply standard and regulations for electricity distribution. Comparison with gas and electricity transmission security of supply standards and regulations to be included where relevant in the context of decarbonisation and electrification of heat, transport and other processes focusing on increased socio-economic reliance on electricity.
  •  Well-justified conclusion, either:

  1. Why and when electricity distribution security of supply needs to change, with credible options for change in security of supply proposed; or
  2. That no change in electricity distribution security of supply is needed and rationale for that recommendation provided.
• Potential for New Learning

  The main output of this research project is a summary report. It will set direction for further research and subsequent development of standards and regulation across the industry.

  Before the final output is produced, a workshop will be organised to allow representatives from other distribution networks to review the initial findings and recommendations. Their input and feedback will be incorporated in the final version of the report.

  Upon completion of the project a webinar will be organised to ensure the learning is disseminated across the industry.

• Monthly updates

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